In the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections 2014, the season is on for political speculations. The ‘know-alls’ of Delhi are continuing to evolve their views not based on any ‘field reality’ but based on either their own assessments or what the pollsters keep indicating. Till September 13, 2013 when the BJP announced Narendra Modi’s name for Prime Minister candidateship, the speculation was “Will the Party be able to project one person”. Additionally, there was an argument that the issues of governance and anti-incumbency against the government will take a back seat and the elections will get polarized. The size of Modi’s rallies is unquestionably the largest I have seen in the past 25 years. Never since 1989 have we seen such enthusiasm in the Party rank and file; the only exceptions were the two elections of 1998 and 1999 when Atalji was considered the most acceptable Prime Ministerial candidate in the political horizon of India. The debate then shifted to a secondary question – who else will support the BJP? Will any new ally join the BJP? Our internal assessment was –many allies would join the BJP either before or after the elections provided it is a strong BJP.
The most recent poll was done by a reputed agency AC Nielson for the news channel ABP News. I have never vouched for the correctness of these polls. If the pollster is credible I regard these polls as ‘indicative’.
What do these polls indicate. The clear message of these polls is that there is going to be one party in the next elections which will be in three figures. It probably will cross the 200 mark. Its allies will also get some seats. The BJP would have a high strike rate in States in the Northern, Central and Western parts of India. In states like Bihar and Karnataka located in the East and South, it would reconsolidate its gains. In some other States the BJP would be a balancer. Amongst various players in the traditionally Non-BJP states, the Modi–BJP momentum could benefit any ally ;even without an ally the party could pick up some stray seats.
The aspirants for Government formation are many. The obvious front-runner is the BJP-led NDA. If the Congress is reduced to a double digit figure, it would be a clear loser. It cannot be the nucleus of an alliance. The Third Front and the Federal front have too many claimants. There is hardly a large single claimant with presence in more than one state. Obviously, the front-runner’s ability to first pass the post is significant. The question now being posted is – How will the BJP led NDA cover the last mile?
This is a time for theoretical calculations. The political pundits will espouse on them. If one gets a feel of the ground reality it will become clear that these large crowds at Modi rallies are bringing a clear message – the front-runner’s score eventually will even be higher than what the pollsters are capturing. It is for smaller groups in several states to decide which way they want to move. There are smaller groups in several states which can marginally add to the collective vote of the BJP and allies. There are larger state groups which have traditionally pursued non-Congress politics in the states. The choice of aligning with the Congress at the Centre either by giving or taking support is not a long term option. These Groups have to make a clear choice. They either align in Delhi with the NDA or follow the Congress option. There is a limited option for most of these groups. If Modi’s rating are over 50%, surely every state is impacted by it. I won’t be surprised if the last mile eventually takes care of itself.